GIS-based multicriteria analysis as decision support in flood risk management

In this report we develop a GIS-based multicriteria flood risk assessment and mapping approach. This approach has the ability a) to consider also flood risks which are not measured in monetary terms, b) to show the spatial distribution of these multiple risks and c) to deal with uncertainties in criteria values and to show their influence on the overall assessment. It can furthermore be used to show the spatial distribution of the effects of risk reduction measures. The approach is tested for a pilot study at the River Mulde in Saxony, Germany. Therefore, a GISdataset of economic as well as social and environmental risk criteria is built up. Two multicriteria decision rules, a disjunctive approach and an additive weighting approach are used to come to an overall assessment and mapping of flood risk in the area. Both the risk calculation and mapping of single criteria as well as the multicriteria analysis are supported by a software tool (FloodCalc) which was developed for this task. --

A glimpse into the future of exposure and vulnerabilities in cities? Modelling of residential location choice of urban population with random forest

The most common approach to assessing natural hazard risk is investigating the willingness to pay in the presence or absence of such risk. In this work, we propose a new, machine-learning-based, indirect approach to the problem, i.e. through residential-choice modelling. Especially in urban environments, exposure and vulnerability are highly dynamic risk components, both being shaped by a complex and continuous reorganization and redistribution of assets within the urban space, including the (re-)location of urban dwellers. By modelling residential-choice behaviour in the city of Leipzig, Germany, we seek to examine how exposure and vulnerabilities are shaped by the residential-location-choice process. The proposed approach reveals hot spots and cold spots of residential choice for distinct socioeconomic groups exhibiting heterogeneous preferences. We discuss the relationship between observed patterns and disaster risk through the lens of exposure and vulnerability, as well as links to urban planning, and explore how the proposed methodology may contribute to predicting future trends in exposure, vulnerability, and risk through this analytical focus. Avenues for future research include the operational strengthening of these linkages for more effective disaster risk management.Peer Reviewe

Shocks and sonic booms in the intracluster medium: X-ray shells and radio galaxy activity

Motivated by hydrodynamic simulations, we discuss the X-ray appearance of radio galaxies embedded in the intracluster medium (ICM) of a galaxy cluster. We distinguish three regimes. In the early life of a powerful source, the entire radio cocoon is expanding supersonically and hence drives a strong shock into the ICM. Eventually, the sides of the cocoon become subsonic and the ICM is disturbed by the sonic booms of the jet's working surface. In both of these regimes, X-ray observations would find an X-ray shell. In the strong shock regime, this shell will be hot and relatively thin. However, in the weak shock (sonic-boom) regime, the shell will be approximately the same temperature as the undisturbed ICM. If a cooling flow is present, the observed shell may even be cooler than the undisturbed ICM due to the lifting of cooler material into the shell from the inner (cooler) regions of the cluster. In the third and final regime, the cocoon has collapsed and no well-defined X-ray shell will be seen. We discuss ways of estimating the power and age of the source once its regime of behavior has been determined.Comment: 4 pages, submitted for publication in Astrophysical Journal. Full paper (including figure) can be obtained from http://rocinante.Colorado.EDU/~chris/papers/xray_hydro.p

Reinforcing nature-based solutions through tools providing social-ecological-technological integration

While held to be a means for climate change adaptation and mitigation, nature-based solutions (NbS) themselves are vulnerable to climate change. To find ways of compensating for this vulnerability we combine a focused literature review on how information technology has been used to strengthen positive social-ecological-technological feedback, with the development of a prototype decision-support tool. Guided by the literature review, the tool integrates recent advances in using globally available remote sensing data to elicit information on functional diversity and ecosystem service provisioning with information on human service demand and population vulnerability. When combined, these variables can inform climate change adaptation strategies grounded in local social-ecological realities. This type of integrated monitoring and packaging information to be actionable have potential to support NbS management and local knowledge building for context-tailored solutions to societal challenges in urban environments.Peer reviewe

Governance models for nature-based solutions: Seventeen cases from Germany

Nature-based solutions (NBS) for mitigating climate change are gaining popularity. The number of NBS is increasing, but research gaps still exist at the governance level. The objectives of this paper are (i) to give an overview of the implemented NBS for flood risk management and mitigation in Germany, (ii) to identify governance models that are applied, and (iii) to explore the differences between these models. The results of a hierarchical clustering procedure and a qualitative analysis show that while no one-size-fits-all governance model exists, polycentricism is an important commonality between the projects. The study concludes by highlighting the need for further research on traditional governance model reconversion and paradigm changes. We expect the findings to identify what has worked in the past, as well as what is important for the implementation of NBS for flood risk management in future projects.Horizon 2020 Framework Programme http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100010661Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347Horizon 2020 http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100007601Horizon 2020 ()Technische Universität München (1025)Peer Reviewe

Competing signatures of intersite and interlayer spin transfer in the ultrafast magnetization dynamics

Optically driven intersite and interlayer spin transfer are individually known as the fastest processes for manipulating the spin order of magnetic materials on the sub 100 fs time scale. However, their competing influence on the ultrafast magnetization dynamics remains unexplored. In our work, we show that optically induced intersite spin transfer (also known as OISTR) dominates the ultrafast magnetization dynamics of ferromagnetic alloys such as Permalloy (Ni80Fe20) only in the absence of interlayer spin transfer into a substrate. Once interlayer spin transfer is possible, the influence of OISTR is significantly reduced and interlayer spin transfer dominates the ultrafast magnetization dynamics. This provides a new approach to control the magnetization dynamics of alloys on extremely short time scales by fine-tuning the interlayer spin transfer

X-ray Signatures of Evolving Radio Galaxies

We present a simple model for an evolving radio galaxy, as it expands into the hot, X-ray emitting interstellar medium (ISM) of its host galaxy or similarly into the hot intracluster medium (ICM) of its host cluster. We solve the governing equations numerically on a grid of model parameters in order to present simple analytical tools for X-ray observations of the shocked shell that is pushed out by the cocoon and the associated cavity in the cluster emission. We apply these tools to the well known example of Perseus A to show that its time-averaged kinetic luminosity probably exceeds 10^46 ergs/sec, much larger than the estimated current power. We show how future observations can be used to extract useful source parameters such as the average kinetic power and the source age, and discuss detectability of sources at various stages of their lives.Comment: submitted to the ApJ, LaTex 2e, 23 pages, 7 postscript figure

Integrative assessment of climate change-related impacts and risks on urban land

Shapefile data set estimating trends of mean annual terrestrial surface air temperature (°C) and mean annual total precipitation (mm) for urban land, characterised by clusters of local spatial autocorrelation in regard to the age of urban area and the coefficient of variation of urban area extent over time